Nigeria’s oil marketers have forecasted that petrol prices could decrease to between N600 and N650 per liter once the Dangote Refinery begins fuel production.

This prediction was made by Hammed Fashola, the National Vice President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), in a statement on Monday.

Fashola’s comments come amid signs that the $20 billion Dangote Refinery, initially expected to start fuel production by mid-August 2024, might face delays. Aliko Dangote, the president of Dangote Group, had previously projected this timeline. However, ongoing challenges in securing a steady crude oil supply have posed significant obstacles for the Lagos-based refinery.

According to Fashola, the current official petrol price from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) stands at N570 per liter, while private depots sell the product at N700 per liter. He suggested that if Dangote’s fuel enters the market, the pump price might drop to between N600 and N650 per liter, depending on production costs.

“The official price from the NNPC is around N570/liter, but the third parties, the private depots, sell PMS to most of our members at N700 and above,” Fashola explained. “Plus or minus, we hope Dangote can sell between N600 and N650/liter. N600 is still okay. However, it depends on the cost of production from Dangote’s end.”

This prediction comes in the wake of a recent dispute between the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission over a crude oil allocation of 26 million barrels, which has further highlighted the refinery’s challenges in securing crude supply.