CBN external reserves are forecast to rise to $51.04bn in 2026 from $45bn in 2025, supported by oil earnings, FX reforms and remittance inflows

The Central Bank of Nigeria has projected that the country’s external reserves will rise to $51.04bn in 2026, up from about $45bn in 2025, signalling cautious optimism about macroeconomic stability despite global uncertainty.

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The projection was published in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, 2026, titled Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability Amid Global Uncertainty, released in Abuja on Tuesday.

The Central Bank of Nigeria said the increase in CBN external reserves would be driven by reduced pressure in the foreign exchange market, higher oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance and stronger diaspora remittance inflows.

The bank also cited the expansion of the Dangote refinery’s nameplate capacity to 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a medium term target of 1.4 million barrels per day, as an additional support factor for reserve accumulation.

Data cited in the report show that Nigeria’s external reserves stood at $45.45bn as of December 29, 2025, after several days of steady accretion.

On the foreign exchange market, the apex bank said ongoing reforms are expected to improve efficiency and transparency, narrow the gap between official and parallel market rates and support exchange rate stability.

Improved domestic refining capacity is also expected to reduce demand for foreign exchange for fuel imports.

The bank forecast that headline inflation would decelerate to 12.94 per cent in 2026 and further to 10.75 per cent in 2027, reflecting easing food prices, softer energy costs and the lagged impact of earlier monetary tightening.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation fell to 14.45 per cent in November 2025 from 16.05 per cent in October, although the Consumer Price Index rose slightly on a month on month basis.

The Central Bank of Nigeria said monetary policy in 2026 would remain flexible, with interest rates and liquidity tools adjusted to balance price stability and economic growth while anchoring inflation expectations.

On the fiscal side, the bank described the 2026 outlook as broadly positive, supported by higher domestic crude oil production and the phased implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025, which is intended to strengthen non oil revenue.

However, the bank warned that risks remain, including a possible fall in global oil prices, lower than expected crude production, rising debt service costs and potential pre election spending pressures that could strain public finances.

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In the financial sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria flagged rising non performing loans as a growing concern, warning that worsening asset quality could undermine bank profitability, reduce credit availability and weaken financial stability if not carefully managed.